The Unpredictable World of College Football Predictions: Why Texas Tech Tops the Big 12 Poll (But Does It Matter?)
Let’s start with a bold statement: preseason polls in college football are about as reliable as a weather forecast in March. One day it’s sunny, the next you’re in a blizzard. Yet, here we are, dissecting the latest Big 12 writers’ poll, where Texas Tech emerged as the favorite to win the league in 2026. Personally, I think this is less about Texas Tech’s undeniable talent and more about the collective shrug of uncertainty that defines college football predictions.
What makes this particularly fascinating is the context. The Big 12 officially stopped conducting its own preseason media poll in 2025 after the 2024 predictions went spectacularly wrong. BYU, picked to finish 13th, ended up tied for the conference championship. Arizona State, predicted dead last at 16th, also claimed a share of the title. Meanwhile, preseason favorite Utah stumbled to a 13th-place finish. If you take a step back and think about it, this isn’t just a fluke—it’s a pattern. College football is a sport where chaos reigns, and preseason polls are often little more than educated guesses wrapped in wishful thinking.
Now, let’s talk about Texas Tech. The Red Raiders secured 14 first-place votes and 254 points in the writers’ poll, edging out BYU, which received two first-place votes and 239 points. On paper, this makes sense. Texas Tech has a strong program, but what many people don’t realize is that their quarterback situation is far from settled after the Brendan Sorsby saga. BYU, on the other hand, has a more stable quarterback room, which likely factored into their second-place ranking. But here’s the kicker: does any of this actually matter?
In my opinion, it doesn’t—at least not in the way we think it does. BYU coach Kalani Sitake summed it up perfectly when he said, ‘They are wrong every time, so they stopped making predictions as a league.’ Sitake isn’t just being humble; he’s acknowledging the futility of preseason polls in a sport where injuries, upsets, and momentum shifts can derail even the most promising seasons. What this really suggests is that these polls are more about generating offseason buzz than providing any real insight into how the season will unfold.
A detail that I find especially interesting is Sitake’s stance on campaigning for rankings or playoff spots. ‘I’m not in the business of campaigning,’ he said. This raises a deeper question: should coaches even care about preseason polls or playoff chatter? Sitake’s focus on humility, hard work, and letting the results speak for themselves is refreshing in an era where hype often overshadows substance. It’s a reminder that the only poll that truly matters is the one at the end of the season.
Speaking of the playoffs, Sitake’s comments about expanding the College Football Playoff to 24 teams are worth exploring. ‘If you ask me, 24 makes the most sense,’ he said. This isn’t just a coach lobbying for his team; it’s a broader critique of a system that often leaves deserving teams on the outside looking in. The FCS has successfully implemented a larger playoff format, so why can’t the FBS? This isn’t just about BYU’s near-misses in 2024 and 2025—it’s about fairness and inclusivity in a sport that thrives on competition.
Now, let’s zoom out for a moment. The Big 12 writers’ poll is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. Arizona and Houston tied for third, Utah came in fifth, and teams like Kansas State and Oklahoma State rounded out the top ten. But if history is any guide, these rankings will look laughably inaccurate by season’s end. One thing that immediately stands out is how quickly fortunes can change in college football. A single injury, a breakout player, or a coaching change can upend everything. That’s what makes this sport so captivating—and so impossible to predict.
From my perspective, the real story here isn’t who’s ranked where, but the culture of prediction itself. Why do we obsess over preseason polls when they’re so often wrong? Is it because we crave order in a sport defined by chaos? Or is it because we love the drama of being right—or wrong—about something that ultimately doesn’t matter until it does?
In conclusion, while Texas Tech topping the Big 12 writers’ poll is an interesting headline, it’s just that—a headline. The true value of this poll lies in the conversations it sparks and the reminders it offers: college football is unpredictable, preseason predictions are often meaningless, and the only thing that really counts is what happens on the field. So, let’s enjoy the speculation, but remember to take it all with a grain of salt. After all, as Sitake wisely noted, ‘We just got to go do our job and play our best and see what happens.’ That’s the beauty of this sport—anything can happen, and usually does.
